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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship

decks
6 (14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25 13-12-0
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8% avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
49.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327 · median 1330 · range 1182–1489 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1149 Q1 1243 Q3 1410 1577
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Suzaku 11.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 37.6% -11.9
Water Allies 9.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.9% +4.4
Fire Aggro 7.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 59.6% +9.2
Fire Crux Mage 7.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 7.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.3% -11.2
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 63.5% +7.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.1
Water Genbu 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.3% +16.4
Wind Allies 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.6% +7.4
Fire Suited 2.4% 0
Horse and Taxes 2.4% 0
Water Aetherwing 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.9% -14.6
Water Astra Ranger 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.3% +18.1
Water Neos Tonoris 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.5% -23.2
Wind Astra Cleric 2.4% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Blackmarket Broker +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Penumbral Waltz +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/33797/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike